Begin by taking key issues that contain an element of uncertainty about the future. Break down each issue into a polarity centred on the core dimension of uncertainty / unresolvable tension. Ensure each polarity is framed as a binary spectrum that is both provocative and has the potential for novel exploration.

List critical uncertainties (future issues) and determine their degree of potential impact and the shared sense of uncertainty regarding each issue. Issues with the highest potential impact and least predictability are to be considered critical to explore through scenario development.

Select two critical uncertainties with the most significant potential impact and least predictability. These uncertainties will form the axes of a 2x2 matrix, creating four quadrants representing distinct future scenarios.

Create narratives for each quadrant, describing plausible future scenarios based on the combination of the chosen uncertainties. Consider familiar narrative aspects such as the setting, scene, stuff, and story driving the narrative exploration.

Discuss the insights gained from the developed scenarios and their implications for decision-making. Identify strategies, actions, or early warning signals to navigate or influence the possible futures and strengthen adaptability and resilience.