Step 01DEFINE POLARITIES OF UNCERTAINTY
Begin by taking key issues that contain an element of uncertainty about the future. Break down each issue into a polarity centred on the core dimension of uncertainty / unresolvable tension. Ensure each polarity is framed as a binary spectrum that is both provocative and has the potential for novel exploration.
Step 02IDENTIFY CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
List critical uncertainties (future issues) and determine their degree of potential impact and the shared sense of uncertainty regarding each issue. Issues with the highest potential impact and least predictability are to be considered critical to explore through scenario development.
Step 03DETERMINE AXIS FOR SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
Select two critical uncertainties with the most significant potential impact and least predictability. These uncertainties will form the axes of a 2x2 matrix, creating four quadrants representing distinct future scenarios.
Step 04DEVELOP FUTURE SCENARIOS
Create narratives for each quadrant, describing plausible future scenarios based on the combination of the chosen uncertainties. Consider familiar narrative aspects such as the setting, scene, stuff, and story driving the narrative exploration.
Step 05DISCUSS POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS AND ACTIONS
Discuss the insights gained from the developed scenarios and their implications for decision-making. Identify strategies, actions, or early warning signals to navigate or influence the possible futures and strengthen adaptability and resilience.