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Futures Triangle
Time30-90mins
Group Size2-20
Facilitation LevelBeginner
MaterialsPen & Paper / Whiteboard

In this exercise, participants will learn to capture signals and drivers of change to understand how they are creating uncertainty about the future.

Steps

Step 01

INTRODUCE THE FUTURES TRIANGLE

Explain the futures triangle, a tool that maps signals and drivers of change in three categories: push of the present, weight of the past, and pull from the future.

Step 02

IDENTIFY SIGNALS AND DRIVERS

Identify signals and drivers of change at landscape, system, and organisation levels, as well as under sociocultural, technological, environmental, ethical, political, legal, and economic areas.

Step 03

CATEGORISE SIGNALS AND DRIVERS

Categorise the identified signals and drivers under the three corners of the futures triangle: push of the present (current forces shaping the future), weight of the past (legacy influences), and pull from the future (emerging opportunities and challenges).

Step 04

GENERATE ISSUES OF RELEVANCE

Using the identified signals and drivers of change, create a series of relevant issues by identifying tensions or contradictions between the three corners. Specifically aim to identify combinations of signals or drivers across the various areas to ensure novel issues emerge in the discussion.

Step 05

DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS

Take each of the identified issues of relevance and discuss the potential impact each one may have on the existing system. Consider the relationship between issues to explore indirect and non-obvious impacts.

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